One factor that will likely cause a continued hay shortage is the extensive alfalfa winterkill that occurred across the upper Midwest last winter. | Photo: University of Kentucky's College of Agriculture

Although I cannot predict the future, there are many indications that prices will remain high in many parts of the country for the foreseeable future. This prediction is based on several factors. The stocks of hay this spring in most states were at almost historic lows. Weather conditions continue to be highly variable with drought in parts of the Southeast and excess rain in the Central U.S. Alfalfa hay fields in the upper Midwest had extensive winterkill this past winter. Dairy producers have been feeding less hay in recent years. Let’s explore each of these factors.

The May U.S. Department of Agriculture report on stocks of all agricultural products showed that hay inventories were at their lowest level since 2013 and at one of the lowest levels in the last 70 years. This shows that hay producers and hay brokers had very little hay remaining in their barns this spring.

In most years, hay stocks will recover during the summer hay production season, but this year may well be different than normal. While some areas of the country have been experiencing drought, news reports of excess rain and flooding show the greater problem. Quality hay cannot be produced when it keeps raining because the plant continues to grow and become more stemmy. Also, if hay is cut and rained on, then there is leaf loss, and mold growth occurs. Additionally, flooding and waterlogged soils can drown out hayfields or at least make them less productive. Hay will be produced in 2019, but expect quality horse hay to be at a premium